Bull elk shot fatality report
Monte Carlo estimate of how Gaussian aiming error around the lung centroid translates into lethal hits, by shot angle, for the archery preset. Generated 2026-10-02 02:35 UTC by elk_shot 0.1.0.
Quick kill
35%
rapid incapacitation, P ≥ 0.9
Lethal (any)
64%
quick kill + lethal, delayed
Wounding
33%
body hit, likely non-fatal
Miss
3%
no body contact
Double lung
15%
both lungs, no heart or spine
Pass-through
36%
of shots that hit the body
Stopped in body
64%
of shots that hit the body
Headline figures are averaged over every shot angle, weighted by cos(elevation).
Model limitations — read before using these numbers
- Anatomy is from game assets, not dissection or CT. Organ and bone shapes come from 3D game models. They were placed inside the body by fitting: scale 0.9, the elbow anchored on the foreleg, and the vitals shifted to fit inside the rib cage. Real elk vary in size, shape and posture, and organ positions may be off by inches.
- Missing anatomy counts as non-vital. The model has no brain or skull, stomach, intestines, diaphragm, lumbar spine, pelvis or leg bones. Head, neck, abdominal and hindquarter hits register only as non-vital wounding. In reality some of these are lethal (brain, lumbar spine) or quickly disabling. Gut hits in particular are usually fatal but slow: all 3 gut-shot deer in Ditchkoff et al. (1998) died, within 24 h to 7 days. So the model under-counts delayed kills and over-counts wounding for abdominal and quartering-away shots.
- Lethality numbers are assumptions. Each structure's P(lethal) and incapacitation speed, and the 0.9 / 0.5 outcome thresholds, are judgement calls rather than measured wound-ballistics data. They agree broadly with rifle-culled elk: chest-shot elk travelled a median 46 m, and 75% of neck shots dropped instantly (McCann et al. 2016). Those are rifle results, and arrows kill more slowly.
- Penetration is simplified. Each shot is a straight channel of constant width. There is no deflection, fragmentation, bullet expansion or arrow flex. The penetration budget and bone-penetration chances in the preset are tunable guesses, and pass-through rates are sensitive to them.
- Aiming is idealised. Every shot is centred on the lung centroid with Gaussian scatter. There is no range, drop, wind, animal movement or flinch, and the elk stands still in one pose. For reference, qualified cull marksmen were held to σ ≲ 1.4 MOA (2.9 in at 200 yd; McCann et al. 2016; see configs/rifle_cull_reference.yaml). Real hunting shots are usually less accurate, and wounding rises with distance (Jourdonnais et al. 2025).
- Sampling noise. With 100 shots per angle, a single angle's percentage can be off by up to about ±10 points (95% interval). The all-angle figures (8400 shots) are within about ±1 points. Increase the shots per angle for stable per-angle numbers.
Use these results to compare shot angles and settings against each other, not as absolute kill probabilities. This report is not hunting, ethics or shot-placement guidance. Sources and how they are used: requirements/literature.md.
Run configuration
- Model
- elk_bull_v2 (bull elk, game-asset meshes)
- Aim point
- lung centroid on the midline; every shot is centred on it
- Aiming error (1σ)
- 5 in horizontal, 5 in vertical, Gaussian
- Azimuths
- 12: 0°, 30°, 60°, 90°, 120°, 150°, 180°, 210°, 240°, 270°, 300°, 330°
- Elevations
- 7: -45°, -30°, -15°, +0°, +15°, +30°, +45°
- Shots per angle
- 100 (8400 total)
- Projectile
- archery: 1 in channel, budget 30 in soft-tissue equivalent
- Angle weighting
- cos(elevation) (solid angle)
- Random seed
- 12345
Outcomes across all angles
What each shot hit
One class per shot, highest first: spine, heart, double lung, single lung, liver, other vitals (great vessels, neck vessels, kidneys). Non-vital = the shot entered the body but reached no vital organ — guts, muscle or bone only; hide contact alone does not count.
Outcome per shot
Quick kill needs a rapidly incapacitating hit (heart, great vessels, both lungs, spine) with P(lethal) ≥ 0.9; lethal-delayed needs P ≥ 0.5.
How shots ended
Pass-through: left the body with penetration to spare. Stopped: the structure where the projectile came to rest — a bone it failed to penetrate (see P(penetrate) below), or where its penetration ran out. 'soft tissue' = muscle outside any modelled organ.
Structures hit
Share of all shots whose wound channel reached each structure.
P(lethal) per shot
Structures hit per shot
By shot angle
Azimuth is where the shooter stands: 0° head-on, 90° the animal's left side, 180° from behind, 270° its right side. Positive elevation is shooting downhill.
Quick kill
Lethal (any)
Pass-through (of body hits)
Quick kill by azimuth (elevation +0°)
Viewed from above with the elk facing up: 0° head-on, 90° its left side.
Every angle
| azimuth | elevation | quick kill | lethal, delayed | wounding | miss | pass-through (of body hits) | most common hit | most common ending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0° | -45° | 19% | 18% | 58% | 5% | 32% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (58%) | pass-through (30%) |
| 30° | -45° | 22% | 24% | 50% | 4% | 47% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (50%) | pass-through (45%) |
| 60° | -45° | 43% | 22% | 32% | 3% | 38% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (32%) | pass-through (37%) |
| 90° | -45° | 45% | 20% | 30% | 5% | 43% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (30%) | pass-through (41%) |
| 120° | -45° | 39% | 34% | 27% | 0% | 37% | single lung (31%) | pass-through (37%) |
| 150° | -45° | 32% | 31% | 31% | 6% | 32% | single lung (31%) | pass-through (30%) |
| 180° | -45° | 28% | 28% | 32% | 12% | 22% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (32%) | stopped: soft tissue (26%) |
| 210° | -45° | 41% | 23% | 34% | 2% | 38% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (34%) | pass-through (37%) |
| 240° | -45° | 47% | 29% | 21% | 3% | 43% | single lung (28%) | pass-through (42%) |
| 270° | -45° | 41% | 24% | 34% | 1% | 36% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (34%) | pass-through (36%) |
| 300° | -45° | 35% | 24% | 38% | 3% | 38% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (38%) | pass-through (37%) |
| 330° | -45° | 20% | 23% | 53% | 4% | 39% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (53%) | pass-through (37%) |
| 0° | -30° | 21% | 14% | 55% | 10% | 11% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (55%) | stopped: soft tissue (35%) |
| 30° | -30° | 27% | 14% | 54% | 5% | 31% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (54%) | pass-through (29%) |
| 60° | -30° | 40% | 22% | 38% | 0% | 47% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (38%) | pass-through (47%) |
| 90° | -30° | 55% | 25% | 18% | 2% | 56% | double lung (29%) | pass-through (55%) |
| 120° | -30° | 53% | 19% | 24% | 4% | 50% | double lung (37%) | pass-through (48%) |
| 150° | -30° | 37% | 32% | 30% | 1% | 30% | single lung (30%) | pass-through (30%) |
| 180° | -30° | 21% | 42% | 23% | 14% | 21% | single lung (42%) | stopped: soft tissue (24%) |
| 210° | -30° | 43% | 24% | 30% | 3% | 29% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (30%) | pass-through (28%) |
| 240° | -30° | 41% | 34% | 22% | 3% | 34% | single lung (30%) | pass-through (33%) |
| 270° | -30° | 56% | 18% | 25% | 1% | 44% | double lung (37%) | pass-through (44%) |
| 300° | -30° | 41% | 30% | 29% | 0% | 37% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (29%) | pass-through (37%) |
| 330° | -30° | 21% | 36% | 39% | 4% | 30% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (39%) | pass-through (29%) |
| 0° | -15° | 22% | 28% | 44% | 6% | 13% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (44%) | stopped: soft tissue (47%) |
| 30° | -15° | 29% | 20% | 49% | 2% | 28% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (49%) | pass-through (27%) |
| 60° | -15° | 36% | 25% | 39% | 0% | 49% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (39%) | pass-through (49%) |
| 90° | -15° | 50% | 34% | 16% | 0% | 51% | double lung (38%) | pass-through (51%) |
| 120° | -15° | 46% | 36% | 17% | 1% | 46% | single lung (30%) | pass-through (46%) |
| 150° | -15° | 36% | 43% | 21% | 0% | 23% | single lung (42%) | stopped: sternum (27%) |
| 180° | -15° | 15% | 35% | 42% | 8% | 12% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (42%) | stopped: soft tissue (47%) |
| 210° | -15° | 45% | 29% | 24% | 2% | 22% | single lung (29%) | pass-through (22%) |
| 240° | -15° | 41% | 33% | 25% | 1% | 36% | single lung (28%) | pass-through (36%) |
| 270° | -15° | 44% | 33% | 23% | 0% | 46% | double lung (31%) | pass-through (46%) |
| 300° | -15° | 43% | 31% | 25% | 1% | 53% | double lung (34%) | pass-through (52%) |
| 330° | -15° | 23% | 33% | 43% | 1% | 24% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (43%) | stopped: soft tissue (29%) |
| 0° | +0° | 23% | 34% | 31% | 12% | 8% | single lung (38%) | stopped: soft tissue (57%) |
| 30° | +0° | 30% | 34% | 35% | 1% | 28% | single lung (35%) | stopped: soft tissue (30%) |
| 60° | +0° | 33% | 30% | 37% | 0% | 47% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (37%) | pass-through (47%) |
| 90° | +0° | 44% | 25% | 27% | 4% | 50% | double lung (31%) | pass-through (48%) |
| 120° | +0° | 47% | 28% | 23% | 2% | 54% | double lung (32%) | pass-through (53%) |
| 150° | +0° | 22% | 51% | 25% | 2% | 18% | single lung (48%) | stopped: sternum (32%) |
| 180° | +0° | 0% | 2% | 94% | 4% | 11% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (94%) | stopped: soft tissue (82%) |
| 210° | +0° | 40% | 44% | 15% | 1% | 31% | single lung (45%) | pass-through (31%) |
| 240° | +0° | 40% | 42% | 18% | 0% | 42% | single lung (37%) | pass-through (42%) |
| 270° | +0° | 40% | 31% | 23% | 6% | 48% | single lung (25%) | pass-through (45%) |
| 300° | +0° | 35% | 32% | 33% | 0% | 48% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (33%) | pass-through (48%) |
| 330° | +0° | 17% | 25% | 54% | 4% | 20% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (54%) | stopped: scapula_right (21%) |
| 0° | +15° | 30% | 24% | 37% | 9% | 16% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (37%) | stopped: soft tissue (38%) |
| 30° | +15° | 23% | 28% | 47% | 2% | 31% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (47%) | pass-through (30%) |
| 60° | +15° | 38% | 23% | 38% | 1% | 41% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (38%) | pass-through (41%) |
| 90° | +15° | 52% | 25% | 21% | 2% | 50% | double lung (29%) | pass-through (49%) |
| 120° | +15° | 44% | 34% | 21% | 1% | 45% | single lung (31%) | pass-through (45%) |
| 150° | +15° | 41% | 40% | 17% | 2% | 26% | single lung (38%) | stopped: sternum (28%) |
| 180° | +15° | 6% | 27% | 62% | 5% | 9% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (62%) | stopped: soft tissue (65%) |
| 210° | +15° | 38% | 38% | 22% | 2% | 33% | single lung (40%) | pass-through (32%) |
| 240° | +15° | 34% | 38% | 27% | 1% | 42% | single lung (31%) | pass-through (42%) |
| 270° | +15° | 44% | 29% | 25% | 2% | 47% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (25%) | pass-through (46%) |
| 300° | +15° | 28% | 44% | 27% | 1% | 48% | single lung (41%) | pass-through (48%) |
| 330° | +15° | 22% | 23% | 55% | 0% | 21% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (55%) | stopped: scapula_right (25%) |
| 0° | +30° | 22% | 23% | 44% | 11% | 22% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (44%) | pass-through (20%) |
| 30° | +30° | 30% | 16% | 49% | 5% | 28% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (49%) | stopped: scapula_left (28%) |
| 60° | +30° | 40% | 17% | 41% | 2% | 51% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (41%) | pass-through (50%) |
| 90° | +30° | 51% | 22% | 27% | 0% | 49% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (27%) | pass-through (49%) |
| 120° | +30° | 55% | 23% | 21% | 1% | 56% | double lung (28%) | pass-through (55%) |
| 150° | +30° | 38% | 41% | 19% | 2% | 31% | single lung (37%) | pass-through (30%) |
| 180° | +30° | 15% | 41% | 38% | 6% | 24% | single lung (40%) | stopped: soft tissue (34%) |
| 210° | +30° | 29% | 48% | 21% | 2% | 31% | single lung (47%) | pass-through (30%) |
| 240° | +30° | 47% | 29% | 21% | 3% | 42% | single lung (26%) | pass-through (41%) |
| 270° | +30° | 45% | 26% | 28% | 1% | 49% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (28%) | pass-through (49%) |
| 300° | +30° | 41% | 28% | 31% | 0% | 48% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (31%) | pass-through (48%) |
| 330° | +30° | 24% | 24% | 46% | 6% | 31% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (46%) | pass-through (29%) |
| 0° | +45° | 31% | 12% | 28% | 29% | 17% | spine (31%) | stopped: spine_thoracic (23%) |
| 30° | +45° | 25% | 22% | 36% | 17% | 39% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (36%) | pass-through (32%) |
| 60° | +45° | 37% | 17% | 44% | 2% | 28% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (44%) | stopped: scapula_left (28%) |
| 90° | +45° | 43% | 21% | 35% | 1% | 40% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (35%) | pass-through (40%) |
| 120° | +45° | 39% | 28% | 32% | 1% | 42% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (32%) | pass-through (42%) |
| 150° | +45° | 31% | 43% | 20% | 6% | 44% | single lung (36%) | pass-through (41%) |
| 180° | +45° | 25% | 44% | 23% | 8% | 41% | single lung (40%) | pass-through (38%) |
| 210° | +45° | 34% | 32% | 32% | 2% | 51% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (32%) | pass-through (50%) |
| 240° | +45° | 38% | 31% | 29% | 2% | 38% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (29%) | pass-through (37%) |
| 270° | +45° | 53% | 25% | 21% | 1% | 46% | single lung (23%) | pass-through (46%) |
| 300° | +45° | 34% | 30% | 31% | 5% | 37% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (31%) | pass-through (35%) |
| 330° | +45° | 29% | 21% | 39% | 11% | 40% | non-vital (guts, muscle, bone) (39%) | pass-through (36%) |
Shot paths
Each line runs from where the wound channel first touches the elk to where the projectile stopped (✕) or left the body. The angle picker drives both views below; drag the 3D view to rotate.
3D wound channels
Shooter's-eye view
Impacts in the plane facing the shooter, centred on the aim point; the dotted ring is the 1σ aiming error. ● passed through, ✕ stopped in the body, ○ missed. Outlines are the hide and organs seen along the line of sight.
Model details
Structure parameters
| structure | category | P(lethal) if hit | incapacitation | entry cost (in) | resistance (in/in) | P(penetrate) on contact | hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hide | envelope | 0.00 | none | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | — |
| antler_right | external | 0.00 | none | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | — |
| antler_left | external | 0.00 | none | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | — |
| mane | external | 0.00 | none | 0 | 0 | 1.00 | — |
| lung_right | vital | 0.75 | delayed | 0 | 0.5 | 1.00 | 37.5% |
| lung_left | vital | 0.75 | delayed | 0 | 0.5 | 1.00 | 36.3% |
| heart | vital | 0.99 | rapid | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 8.6% |
| great_vessels | vital | 0.97 | rapid | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 4.6% |
| neck_vessels | vital | 0.85 | rapid | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 1.9% |
| liver | vital | 0.85 | delayed | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 18.8% |
| kidneys | vital | 0.50 | delayed | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.8% |
| spine_cervical | cns | 0.90 | immediate | 3 | 3 | 0.35 | 1.1% |
| spine_thoracic | cns | 0.90 | immediate | 3 | 3 | 0.35 | 10.1% |
| scapula_right | bone | 0.02 | none | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 7.7% |
| scapula_left | bone | 0.02 | none | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 7.7% |
| humerus_right | bone | 0.02 | none | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 3.0% |
| humerus_left | bone | 0.02 | none | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 3.2% |
| ribs_right | bone | 0.02 | none | 0.5 | 2 | 0.95 | 36.2% |
| ribs_left | bone | 0.02 | none | 0.5 | 2 | 0.95 | 36.2% |
| sternum | bone | 0.02 | none | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 31.0% |
Method
For each angle, shots are drawn from a 2D Gaussian in the plane facing the shooter, centred on the lung centroid. Each shot is a straight wound channel: it pays each structure's entry cost when the channel first touches it, a bone stops it outright unless it penetrates (the preset's per-bone P(penetrate)), and inside each structure it spends resistance × path length from the penetration budget. P(lethal) combines the structures reached as 1 − Π(1 − p), with both lungs together counting as one 0.98 rapid hit.